Shelbourne 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 36 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shelbourne at 2.30 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Shelbourne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for St Patrick's Athl., with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.
The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shelbourne in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 55% versus St Patrick's Athl. 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.24 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.137 / defence 1.050 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.876 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 0.968. Data: 71 Shelbourne games / 71 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 43% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 43% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Shelbourne 1.24 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.137 / def 1.050 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.876 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.335 / away 0.968 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 43% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (6 meetings): Shelbourne 4W | Draws 1 | St Patrick's Athl. 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.14) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
43%
2.30
31%
3.25
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.13
0.89
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.89 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 32W 25D 14L from 71 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 20D 21L across 71 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shelbourne on 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 17W 11D 7L from 35 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 11W 10D 14L across 35 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shelbourne are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.31 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 25D 14L in their last 71 games (1.70 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 20D 21L in their last 71 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.77 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shelbourne's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shelbourne
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 57%, St Patrick's Athl. 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Shelbourne) and 46% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 37%; St Patrick's Athl. in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 43% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Shelbourne's recent games and 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Shelbourne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 36, as Shelbourne and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.24 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.89 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.14 / defence 1.05 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.88 / defence 0.82, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 43% | Draw 31% | St Patrick's Athl. 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, St Patrick's Athl. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.70 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.