Shelbourne 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 46% versus Bohemians 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 46% | Bohemians 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.13 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.875 / defence 1.169 | Bohemians attack 1.071 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.037. Data: 24 Shelbourne games / 61 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 32% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 40%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Bohemians 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 50% | Bohemians 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 32% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Shelbourne 1.13 / Bohemians 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.875 / def 1.169 | Bohemians attack 1.071 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bohemians xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 32% chance of winning, Bohemians a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.88) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.07x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 24/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
32%
3.09
27%
3.66
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.43
1.30
Bohemians xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
13%
7.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.30 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 9W 4D 11L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Shelbourne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 9L across 24 games — 1.29 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.29 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 4W 2D 5L from 11 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Blended
Bohemians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 8W 7D 9L in their last 24 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Bohemians's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.27 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 46%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Shelbourne) and 46% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 64% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Shelbourne's recent games and 46% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Bohemians tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 28, as Shelbourne and Bohemians drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.13 xG and Bohemians 1.30 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.88 / defence 1.17 against Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 32% | Draw 27% | Bohemians 40%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 46%, Bohemians 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.29 PPG, Bohemians 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.