Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 32 as Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shamrock Rovers at 2.10 PPG versus Waterford's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Shamrock Rovers hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 1 for Waterford, with 1 draws in between.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2026, ended 2–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The historical record gives Shamrock Rovers a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Waterford trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Waterford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Waterford 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.78 xG and Waterford 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.180 / defence 0.893 | Waterford attack 1.039 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. Data: 64 Shamrock Rovers games / 65 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 47% | Draw 30% | Waterford 23%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Waterford 4.35. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 70% | Waterford 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 47% | Draw 30% | Waterford 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.78 / Waterford 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.180 / def 0.893 | Waterford attack 1.039 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Waterford xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 18 September 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 47% chance of winning, Waterford a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Record (10 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 8W | Draws 1 | Waterford 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Waterford (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.18) and Waterford's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.36
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.99
1.21
Waterford xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
17%
5.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
4%
26.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.21 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 35W 16D 13L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 18W 17D 29L from 64 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.29 PPG from 31 outings (22W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Shamrock Rovers are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Waterford have gone 7W 7D 17L from 31 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.23 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 35W 16D 13L in their last 64 games (1.89 PPG), while Waterford have gone 18W 17D 29L in their last 64 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.29 PPG; Waterford away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, Waterford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 48%, Waterford 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Shamrock Rovers) and 52% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Waterford in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 55% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 52% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Waterford tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.