Shamrock Rovers 1-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 75% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 14 as Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Shamrock Rovers have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Shamrock Rovers hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 1 for Waterford, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shamrock Rovers and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 54% versus Waterford 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 50% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.70 xG and Waterford 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.199 / defence 0.819 | Waterford attack 0.913 / defence 1.527. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.160. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.527 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Shamrock Rovers games / 48 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Waterford 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.57 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Waterford 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 55% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.70 / Waterford 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.199 / def 0.819 | Waterford attack 0.913 / def 1.527 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.70
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Waterford xG
55%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 75% chance of winning, Waterford a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Record (8 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 6W | Draws 1 | Waterford 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.20) and Waterford's defence rating (1.53), the model arrives at 2.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.41
9%
11.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.70
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.57
0.87
Waterford xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.41
16%
Draw
11.15
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
7%
14.86
Win to Nil
32%
3.16
1%
165.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 2.70 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.87 for Waterford, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 72 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 36W 19D 17L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 25W 11D 36L from 72 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.57 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.00 PPG from 36 outings (21W 9D 6L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 11W 5D 20L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.18 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 games (1.76 PPG), while Waterford have gone 25W 11D 36L in their last 72 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Waterford away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Waterford in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, Waterford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 44%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Waterford tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Waterford 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.70 xG and Waterford 0.87 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Waterford attack 0.91 / defence 1.53, drawn from 49/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 75% | Draw 16% | Waterford 9%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 50%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waterford's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.