Finn Harps 1-1 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bohemians travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps in Premier Division (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Bohemians away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 1.10 PPG, Bohemians 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Finn Harps's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2021, ended Finn Harps 2–1 Bohemians — a Finn Harps win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Finn Harps trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians trading profile (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 61% and Bohemians 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Bohemians 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Finn Harps surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Bohemians have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.45 xG and Bohemians 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 1.095 / defence 1.009 | Bohemians attack 1.089 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.040. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 38 games and Bohemians's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 30%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.27 | Draw 3.83 | Bohemians 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Finn Harps's last 10 home games and Bohemians's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Finn Harps 70% (last 10 home games) | Bohemians 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Finn Harps 38 games, Bohemians 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 4 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 4 March 2022 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Finn Harps 1.45 / Bohemians 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 1.095 / def 1.009 | Bohemians attack 1.089 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bohemians xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Bohemians FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Bohemians kick off?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 4 March 2022 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Bohemians.
Where is Finn Harps vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Bohemians part of?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 4) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Finn Harps and Bohemians will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Finn Harps vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 38 games and Bohemians's last 38, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.83
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.59
1.14
Bohemians xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.11
7%
14.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Bohemians Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.14 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Finn Harps come into this having played 36 games, going 11W 11D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-D-W.
On the other side, Bohemians sit at 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.22 PPG, Bohemians on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Finn Harps's home form reads 5W 6D 7L across their last 18 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 18 away games (5W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.67 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Bohemians in 67%.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
Finn Harps (Home) vs Bohemians (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Finn Harps vs Bohemians Form FAQs
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Bohemians away?
Finn Harps's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.17 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 21 October 2022, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won Bohemians 4-0 Finn Harps.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Bohemians H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Bohemians last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 October 2022: Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 61%, Bohemians 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 44% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Finn Harps vs Bohemians Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Finn Harps and Bohemians matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Finn Harps's games and 67% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Finn Harps and Bohemians matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 44% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Bohemians matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Finn Harps's recent matches and 78% of Bohemians's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and Bohemians share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps and Bohemians finished level at 1-1 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.45 xG and Bohemians 1.14 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 1.09 / defence 1.01 against Bohemians attack 1.09 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 44% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 30%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Bohemians 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.