Finn Harps 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 48% as Finn Harps take on Bohemians.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Bohemians travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 March 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 0.71 xG and Bohemians 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bohemians attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Finn Harps games / 0 Bohemians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 33% | Draw 48% | Bohemians 19%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 3.03 | Draw 2.08 | Bohemians 5.26. The draw (48%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 12% | BTTS probability 23% | Total xG 1.20. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 88% probability — total xG of 1.20 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 77% — Bohemians's lower xG of 0.50 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 23%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 48% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 19% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 12% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 33% | Draw 48% | Bohemians 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 12% | BTTS 23% | xG Finn Harps 0.71 / Bohemians 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bohemians attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Bohemians xG
23%
BTTS
37%
Over 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
3%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Bohemians kick off?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Finn Harps 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Finn Harps vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Bohemians part of?
Finn Harps vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 33% chance of winning, Bohemians a 19% chance, and a 48% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 23% probability that both Finn Harps and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 12%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Finn Harps and Bohemians in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bohemians's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 31.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (19.8%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 65% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
48%
2.09
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
30.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
21.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
1.20
0.50
Bohemians xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.09
48%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
34%
Over 1.5
2.94
66%
Under 1.5
1.52
12%
Over 2.5
8.33
88%
Under 2.5
1.14
3%
Over 3.5
33.33
97%
Under 3.5
1.03
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
23%
BTTS Yes
4.35
77%
BTTS No
1.30
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 30.0 | 14.9 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 21.2 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 31.4%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Finn Harps and 0.50 for Bohemians, a combined total of 1.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Bohemians
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Bohemians specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Finn Harps edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Bohemians 1-0 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 0.71 xG and Bohemians 0.50 xG, a combined 1.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bohemians attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 33% | Draw 48% | Bohemians 19%, with the draw its most likely call at 48%. The actual Finn Harps win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 12%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 37% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 23% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.