Dundalk 3-3 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dundalk at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Casey's Field plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 21 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Dundalk at Casey's Field this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Casey's Field. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Dundalk are significantly better at Casey's Field than their overall form suggests.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dundalk, 1.50 for Sligo Rovers — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 53% versus Sligo Rovers 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 47% | Sligo Rovers 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.27 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.092 / defence 0.761 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.999 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.076. Dundalk's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 69 Dundalk games / 68 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 47% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 2.13 | Draw 3.45 | Sligo Rovers 4.17. Dundalk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 40% | Sligo Rovers 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Casey's Field • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 47% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Dundalk 1.27 / Sligo Rovers 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.092 / def 0.761 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.999 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sligo Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Casey's Field.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 3 - 3 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Casey's Field.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 47% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.00x) against Dundalk's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 69/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.45
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.09
0.82
Sligo Rovers xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
7%
14.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.82 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 28W 19D 21L from 68 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 29W 17D 22L across 68 games — 1.53 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Dundalk against 1.53 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 20W 6D 8L from 34 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.51 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 13W 8D 13L across 34 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.28 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 28W 19D 21L in their last 68 games (1.51 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 29W 17D 22L in their last 68 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Dundalk's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 1.94 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 56%, Sligo Rovers 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Dundalk) and 41% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 35%; Sligo Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dundalk's recent matches and 44% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Dundalk's recent games and 41% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Sligo Rovers finished level at 3-3 at Casey's Field, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.27 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.82 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Dundalk beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.09 / defence 0.76 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.88, drawn from 69/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 47% | Draw 29% | Sligo Rovers 24%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 47%, Sligo Rovers 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.51 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.