Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bohemians make the trip to Weavers Park to face Drogheda United in Premier Division, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 21 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Drogheda United have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Drogheda United's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Weavers Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Drogheda United are significantly better at Weavers Park than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Bohemians have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Drogheda United, 1.30 for Bohemians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Drogheda United — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 49% versus Bohemians 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 40% | Bohemians 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.75 xG and Bohemians 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.832 / defence 1.022 | Bohemians attack 1.052 / defence 0.695. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.184. Bohemians's defence strength of 0.695 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Drogheda United games / 46 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 22% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 49%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Bohemians 2.04. Bohemians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 40% | Bohemians 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Weavers Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 22% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 38% | xG Drogheda United 0.75 / Bohemians 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.832 / def 1.022 | Bohemians attack 1.052 / def 0.695 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bohemians xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs Bohemians kick off?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 April 2023 at Weavers Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Drogheda United 0 - 2 Bohemians.
Where is Drogheda United vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Weavers Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs Bohemians part of?
Drogheda United vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Drogheda United and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Bohemians (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.05x) against Drogheda United's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
22%
4.54
29%
3.43
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.03
1.27
Bohemians xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
23%
4.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 16.8 | 10.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.27 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 21W 19D 32L record — W-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians's form line: 26W 20D 26L from 72 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Drogheda United against 1.36 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.44 PPG from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
On the road, Bohemians have gone 10W 11D 15L from 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Drogheda United are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.46 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians in 64%.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 21W 19D 32L in their last 72 games (1.14 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or Bohemians away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.44 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bohemians have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Drogheda United have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Drogheda United
2
Draws
4
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 4, Bohemians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 47%, Bohemians 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Drogheda United) and 42% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play Bohemians?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Drogheda United's games and 64% of Bohemians's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Drogheda United's recent games and 42% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Drogheda United and Bohemians tend to score early?
Drogheda United have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bohemians in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 0-2 at Weavers Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.75 xG and Bohemians 1.27 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Bohemians attack 1.05 / defence 0.69, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 22% | Draw 29% | Bohemians 49%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 40%, Bohemians 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Drogheda United 1.14 PPG, Bohemians 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.