Derry City 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host Waterford at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 April 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.04 xG and Waterford 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Waterford attack 0.720 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 0.947 / away 1.025. Data: 1 Derry City games / 2 Waterford games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 32% | Waterford 29%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Waterford 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Apr 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 32% | Waterford 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Derry City 1.04 / Waterford 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Waterford attack 0.720 / def 1.144 | league avg home 0.947 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Waterford xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Waterford kick off?
Derry City vs Waterford kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 April 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Derry City 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Derry City vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Waterford part of?
Derry City vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 39% chance of winning, Waterford a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derry City and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Waterford in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Derry City's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
39%
2.54
32%
3.16
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.89
0.85
Waterford xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
10%
9.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Derry City and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Derry City and 0.85 for Waterford, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Derry City
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 6, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Derry City 2-4 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Waterford?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Waterford defy the odds to beat Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.04 xG and Waterford 0.85 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Waterford attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 1/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 39% | Draw 32% | Waterford 29%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.