Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derry City at 1.70 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derry City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 62% and St Patrick's Athl. 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 48% | St Patrick's Athl. 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.63 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.134 / defence 1.122 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.953 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.212. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Derry City games / 29 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 30%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.33. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Derry City 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 45% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Derry City 1.63 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.134 / def 1.122 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.953 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Derry City (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 October 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 45% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
45%
2.21
24%
4.12
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.93
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.21
45%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
6%
16.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Derry City and 1.30 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 11W 9D 9L from 29 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 8L across 29 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.45 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 4W 7D 4L from 15 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of St Patrick's Athl.'s season.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.62 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 11W 9D 9L in their last 29 games (1.45 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 16W 5D 8L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.27 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derry City at 67%, St Patrick's Athl. at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Derry City) and 47% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Derry City's games and 73% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Derry City's recent games and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.63 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.13 / defence 1.12 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.95 / defence 1.30, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 45% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 30%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 48%, St Patrick's Athl. 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.45 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.