Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Derry City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 10 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 60% versus St Patrick's Athl. 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 48% | St Patrick's Athl. 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.38 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.195 / defence 1.037 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.937 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.306. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence strength of 0.784 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Derry City games / 65 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 36% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Derry City dominate the H2H record, yet St Patrick's Athl. are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 50% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 36% | Draw 33% | St Patrick's Athl. 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 58% | xG Derry City 1.38 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.195 / def 1.037 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.937 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: Derry City (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
St Patrick's Athl. xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is scheduled to kick off at 18:45 on Friday 9 October 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 36% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (10 meetings): Derry City 4W | Draws 4 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
36%
2.78
33%
2.99
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.65
1.27
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.78
36%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Derry City and 1.27 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 25W 22D 18L from 65 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 17L across 65 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.49 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 14W 12D 6L from 32 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 10W 10D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.34 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 25W 22D 18L in their last 65 games (1.49 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 27W 21D 17L in their last 65 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.69 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 62%, St Patrick's Athl. 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Derry City) and 34% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 38%; St Patrick's Athl. in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Derry City's recent matches and 38% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Derry City's recent games and 34% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.