Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Derry City have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Derry City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 53% versus St Patrick's Athl. 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 43% | St Patrick's Athl. 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.014 / defence 0.992 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.043 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.230. Data: 53 Derry City games / 53 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 20%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 39% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Derry City 1.40 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.014 / def 0.992 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.043 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
St Patrick's Athl. xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 22 May 2026 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 39% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (8 meetings): Derry City 4W | Draws 2 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.68
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.67
1.27
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Derry City and 1.27 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 32W 22D 18L from 72 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 21D 21L across 72 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.64 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 18W 12D 6L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 11W 11D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.22 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 22D 18L in their last 72 games (1.64 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 64%, St Patrick's Athl. 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derry City) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%; St Patrick's Athl. in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Derry City's recent matches and 42% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derry City's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derry City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.40 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.27 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derry City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 39% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 34%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 43%, St Patrick's Athl. 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.64 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.