Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derry City at 41%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derry City host St Patrick's Athl. at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 5 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Derry City's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derry City register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Derry City, 2 for St Patrick's Athl. and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2025, ended 0–2 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.22 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.086 / defence 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.201. Data: 49 Derry City games / 49 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 41% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derry City at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 60% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 41% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Derry City 1.22 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.086 / def 0.880 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.930 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Derry City (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.98
St Patrick's Athl. xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 5 May 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City 1 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Record (4 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 0 | St Patrick's Athl. 2W.
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derry City's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.29
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.21
0.98
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.2 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Derry City and 0.98 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derry City's recent record stands at 32W 24D 16L from 72 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 36W 13D 23L across 72 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.67 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 18W 12D 6L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 15W 8D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Derry City are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.53 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 games (1.67 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 13D 23L in their last 72 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Derry City or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Derry City's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
4
Draws
2
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and St Patrick's Athl.?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derry City) and 56% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play St Patrick's Athl.?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Derry City's recent matches and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derry City's recent games and 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out St Patrick's Athl. 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.22 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.98 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 41% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 29%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.