Derry City 0-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Derry City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Shamrock Rovers are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 63% versus Shamrock Rovers 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 48% | Shamrock Rovers 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.07 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.105 / defence 1.034 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.108 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.083. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 60 Derry City games / 60 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Shamrock Rovers 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 70% | Shamrock Rovers 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Derry City 1.07 / Shamrock Rovers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.105 / def 1.034 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.108 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 12 August 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Derry City 0 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 31% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Derry City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Derry City (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.11x) against Derry City's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
31%
3.22
29%
3.40
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.31
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 12.4 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Derry City and 1.24 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Derry City have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 26W 20D 14L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Derry City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 40W 10D 10L from 60 games, 2.17 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Derry City.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derry City have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (10W 13D 6L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 2D 9L from 29 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.62 scored and 0.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 26W 20D 14L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 40W 10D 10L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.48 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Derry City
3
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 2, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 66%, Shamrock Rovers 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Derry City) and 45% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Derry City's recent matches and 41% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Derry City's recent games and 45% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Derry City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 0-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.07 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Derry City fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.11 / defence 0.75, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 31% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 40%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 48%, Shamrock Rovers 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.