Derry City 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 18 as Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derry City stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Derry City carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Derry City, 1 for Finn Harps and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with Derry City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Derry City in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Derry City 61% and Finn Harps 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 2.15 xG and Finn Harps 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.214 / defence 0.909 | Finn Harps attack 0.936 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.180. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Derry City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Derry City games / 53 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 63% | Draw 20% | Finn Harps 17%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Finn Harps 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Derry City (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Derry City 40% | Finn Harps 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 63% | Draw 20% | Finn Harps 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Derry City 2.15 / Finn Harps 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.214 / def 0.909 | Finn Harps attack 0.936 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Derry City (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.15
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Finn Harps xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Finn Harps kick off?
Derry City vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 May 2022 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Derry City 2 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Derry City vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Finn Harps part of?
Derry City vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 63% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Derry City and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Record (5 meetings): Derry City 2W | Draws 2 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in?
Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 1.21x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
63%
1.58
20%
5.04
17%
6.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.15
Derry City xG
Total xG
3.15
1.00
Finn Harps xG
1.58
63%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
6.00
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.55
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
2%
51.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Derry City and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 2.15 expected goals for Derry City and 1.00 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derry City come into this having played 36 games, going 14W 12D 10L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Finn Harps sit at 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derry City on 1.50 PPG, Finn Harps on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Derry City's home form reads 6W 8D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Finn Harps have taken 1.28 points per game from 18 outings (6W 5D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Finn Harps in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 games (1.50 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Finn Harps away?
Derry City's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.44 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Finn Harps have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 61%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Derry City) and 67% (Finn Harps).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Derry City's games and 61% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derry City vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Derry City's recent games and 67% of Finn Harps's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derry City and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City and Finn Harps finished level at 2-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 2.15 xG and Finn Harps 1.00 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.21 / defence 0.91 against Finn Harps attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 63% | Draw 20% | Finn Harps 17%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.50 PPG, Finn Harps 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derry City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.