Derry City 1-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 9 as Derry City welcome Finn Harps to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 3 May 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 0.74 xG and Finn Harps 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 0.867 / defence 1.221 | Finn Harps attack 0.698 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 0.778 / away 1.178. Data: 8 Derry City games / 8 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 24% | Draw 37% | Finn Harps 39%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 4.17 | Draw 2.70 | Finn Harps 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 37% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Derry City's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 37% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 3 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 24% | Draw 37% | Finn Harps 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Derry City 0.74 / Finn Harps 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 0.867 / def 1.221 | Finn Harps attack 0.698 / def 1.100 | league avg home 0.778 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Finn Harps xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Finn Harps kick off?
Derry City vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 3 May 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Derry City 1 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Derry City vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Finn Harps part of?
Derry City vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 24% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 39% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Derry City and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derry City and Finn Harps in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 0.87x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
24%
4.09
37%
2.73
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Derry City xG
Total xG
1.75
1.00
Finn Harps xG
4.09
24%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.4 | 17.5 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.1%.
How many goals are Derry City and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Derry City and 1.00 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Pre-Season
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Derry City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Derry City's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Finn Harps have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Finn Harps?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Finn Harps edge out Derry City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps beat Derry City 1-2 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 0.74 xG and Finn Harps 1.00 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Finn Harps attack 0.70 / defence 1.10, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 24% | Draw 37% | Finn Harps 39%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.