Derry City 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derry City and Bohemians meet at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derry City have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry City have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Derry City have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Derry City, 0 for Bohemians and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 40% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.21 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.015 / defence 0.984 | Bohemians attack 1.021 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.067. Data: 37 Derry City games / 37 Bohemians games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Derry City 38% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 31%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Bohemians 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 60% | Bohemians 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (37 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 38% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Derry City 1.21 / Bohemians 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.015 / def 0.984 | Bohemians attack 1.021 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Derry City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Bohemians kick off?
Derry City vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 February 2025 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Derry City 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Derry City vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Bohemians part of?
Derry City vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 38% chance of winning, Bohemians a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Derry City and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
Record (2 meetings): Derry City 1W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 0W.
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in?
Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Derry City's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Bohemians's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (1.02x) against Derry City's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
38%
2.66
31%
3.19
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
Bohemians xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.0 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Derry City and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Derry City and 1.07 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Derry City's recent record stands at 32W 24D 16L from 72 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 24L across 72 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Derry City against 1.39 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 18W 12D 6L from 36 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 12W 12D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derry City are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.28 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 games (1.67 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Bohemians away?
Derry City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.83 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derry City or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derry City won 4-1 on 12 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Derry City
3
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 4, Bohemians have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Bohemians 5-3 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Bohemians?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derry City see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 44%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Derry City) and 33% (Bohemians).
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bohemians in 36%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Derry City's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Derry City's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Derry City edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Bohemians 1-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.21 xG and Bohemians 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.01 / defence 0.98 against Bohemians attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 38% | Draw 31% | Bohemians 31%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 40%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.67 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.