Cork City 1-0 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 68%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Turner's Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cork City have won 0, Shamrock Rovers 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 8.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 0.64 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.944 / defence 1.144 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.364 / defence 0.515. League average goals — home 1.323 / away 1.230. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.515 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Shamrock Rovers have an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — the away xG of 1.92 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 16 Cork City games / 53 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 12% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 68%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 8.33 | Draw 4.76 | Shamrock Rovers 1.47. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Turner's Cross • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 12% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 40% | xG Cork City 0.64 / Shamrock Rovers 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.944 / def 1.144 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.364 / def 0.515 | league avg home 1.323 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.64
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Shamrock Rovers xG
40%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Turner's Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Cork City 1 - 0 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Turner's Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 12% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 68% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cork City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (1 meetings): Cork City 0W | Draws 1 | Shamrock Rovers 0W.
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Shamrock Rovers away split: 1.50 PPG from 10 | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.64. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
12%
8.61
21%
4.85
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
14.2%
Away win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.64
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.56
1.92
Shamrock Rovers xG
8.61
12%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
15%
6.81
53%
1.90
Win to Nil
2%
58.64
36%
2.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 14.8 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.64 expected goals for Cork City and 1.92 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cork City
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Cork City defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City beat Shamrock Rovers 1-0 at Turner's Cross, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 0.64 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.92 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Shamrock Rovers landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.94 / defence 1.14 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.36 / defence 0.52, drawn from 16/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 12% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 68%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Cork City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.