Bohemians 3-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sligo Rovers make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bohemians have posted 4W 2D 4L at Dalymount Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Sligo Rovers (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sligo Rovers are 0.60 PPG clear of Bohemians in recent Premier Division fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 63% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 52% | Sligo Rovers 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.11 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.822 / defence 1.121 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.143 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.085. Data: 71 Bohemians games / 71 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 43%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sligo Rovers 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sligo Rovers at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 50% | Sligo Rovers 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Bohemians 1.11 / Sligo Rovers 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.822 / def 1.121 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.143 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sligo Rovers xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians 3 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bohemians and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.82) and Sligo Rovers's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (1.14x) against Bohemians's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
30%
3.32
27%
3.75
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.50
1.39
Sligo Rovers xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.35
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.39 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 71 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 25W 20D 26L record — W-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 30W 19D 22L from 71 games, 1.54 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Bohemians against 1.54 for Sligo Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.54 PPG from 35 outings (15W 9D 11L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 13W 9D 13L from 35 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.28 scored and 0.99 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 25W 20D 26L in their last 71 games (1.34 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 30W 19D 22L in their last 71 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Bohemians's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.54 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-4 on 14 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Sligo Rovers 1-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Sligo Rovers?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 63%, Sligo Rovers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Bohemians) and 43% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers in 34%; Sligo Rovers in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bohemians's recent matches and 46% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Bohemians's recent games and 43% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Sligo Rovers 3-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.11 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.39 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 43%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 52%, Sligo Rovers 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.34 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.