Bohemians 0-1 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Bohemians take on Galway United.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bohemians welcome Galway United to Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 14). Kick-off is Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.77 xG and Galway United 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.953 / defence 1.001 | Galway United attack 0.769 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.139 / away 0.898. Galway United bring a tight defence (rating 0.708, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Bohemians's projected output down. Galway United's attack rating of 0.769 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.69. Data: built from Bohemians's last 49 games and Galway United's last 13.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Galway United 28%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.11 | Draw 2.48 | Galway United 3.63. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS Yes probability 28% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Galway United's lower xG of 0.69 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 82% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 14 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Galway United 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% (Under 82%) | BTTS Yes 28% (No 72%) | xG Bohemians 0.77 / Galway United 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.953 / def 1.001 | Galway United attack 0.769 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.139 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Galway United xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs Galway United kick off?
Bohemians vs Galway United kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 6 May 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Bohemians 0 - 1 Galway United.
Where is Bohemians vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Galway United part of?
Bohemians vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 14) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 32% chance of winning, Galway United a 28% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Bohemians and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (72%).
Will Bohemians vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (82%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 0.95x the league average against Galway United's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 49 games and Galway United's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 24.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.2%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
40%
2.48
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Bohemians xG
Total xG
1.46
0.69
Galway United xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.48
40%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.2 | 16.1 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.3 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.69 for Galway United, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Bohemians (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 11 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won Bohemians 3-0 Galway United.
Bohemians's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 5, Galway United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 September 2026: Galway United 2-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Galway United?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Galway United defy the odds to beat Bohemians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Galway United beat Bohemians 0-1 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.77 xG and Galway United 0.69 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.95 / defence 1.00 against Galway United attack 0.77 / defence 0.71, drawn from 49/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 32% | Draw 40% | Galway United 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The actual Galway United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 44% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.