Bohemians 5-0 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Drogheda United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and Drogheda United meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.557 / defence 1.108 | Drogheda United attack 1.255 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.357. Bohemians carry an above-average attack strength of 1.557 — their λ of 1.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Drogheda United have an above-average attack strength of 1.255 — the away xG of 1.89 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Bohemians games / 15 Drogheda United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 45%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.23 | Draw 4.17 | Drogheda United 2.22. Drogheda United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.89) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Drogheda United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.43 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 31% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG Bohemians 1.54 / Drogheda United 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.557 / def 1.108 | Drogheda United attack 1.255 / def 1.088 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Drogheda United (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Drogheda United xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Drogheda United kick off?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 June 2021 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Bohemians 5 - 0 Drogheda United.
Where is Bohemians vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Drogheda United part of?
Bohemians vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 31% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 45% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Drogheda United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Bohemians and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and Drogheda United in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.56x league average) is weighed against Drogheda United's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Drogheda United's attack (1.25x) against Bohemians's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.89.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Drogheda United Win
31%
3.22
24%
4.23
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bohemians xG
Total xG
3.43
1.89
Drogheda United xG
3.22
31%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
15%
6.60
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
5%
21.28
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.89 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Drogheda United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Pre-Season
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bohemians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 1-4 on 1 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Drogheda United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
2
Draws
4
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Drogheda United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 Bohemians.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Bohemians run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Drogheda United 5-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.54 xG and Drogheda United 1.89 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Drogheda United landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.56 / defence 1.11 against Drogheda United attack 1.25 / defence 1.09, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 31% | Draw 24% | Drogheda United 45%, with Drogheda United to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Bohemians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.