Volos NFC 1-2 PAS Giannina – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Volos NFC face PAS Giannina.

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Full Analysis

Panthessaliko Stadio plays host to Volos NFC versus PAS Giannina in Super League 1 (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Current Form

Volos NFC's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Volos NFC have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Volos NFC's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Volos NFC's games and 70% of PAS Giannina's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Volos NFC, 1 for PAS Giannina and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Volos NFC 1–1 PAS Giannina — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Volos NFC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

PAS Giannina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 44% versus PAS Giannina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 58% | PAS Giannina 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.61 xG and PAS Giannina 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.809 / defence 1.348 | PAS Giannina attack 0.818 / defence 1.266. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.295. PAS Giannina's defence rating of 1.266 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Volos NFC's projected output up. Volos NFC's defence rating of 1.348 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAS Giannina's projected output up. Data: built from Volos NFC's last 48 games and PAS Giannina's last 48.

Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 26% | PAS Giannina 33%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.45 | Draw 3.78 | PAS Giannina 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.61 / 1.43) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Volos NFC's last 10 home games and PAS Giannina's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Volos NFC 70% (last 10 home games) | PAS Giannina 70% (last 10 away games).

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