Volos NFC 2-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Olympiakos Piraeus at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 December 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadio: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Volos NFC.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–5 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 40% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 52% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.81 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.815 / defence 1.221 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.303 / defence 0.645. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.104. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.645 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Volos NFC games / 38 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 15% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 6.67 | Draw 3.57 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.57 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Dec 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 15% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Volos NFC 0.81 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.815 / def 1.221 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.303 / def 0.645 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 3 December 2023 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Volos NFC 2 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 15% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 58% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (4 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3W.
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
15%
6.73
28%
3.63
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.57
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
6.73
15%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
3%
39.02
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.76 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 13W 11D 24L from 48 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 6L across 48 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Volos NFC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 7W 2D 13L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 12W 7D 3L across 22 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.12 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 13W 11D 24L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 30W 12D 6L in their last 48 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.05 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Volos NFC
2
Draws
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 46%, Olympiakos Piraeus 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Volos NFC) and 41% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 59%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 36% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Volos NFC's recent games and 41% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Olympiakos Piraeus finished level at 2-2 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.81 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.76 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.30 / defence 0.65, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 15% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 58%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (48 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (48 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.