Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Conference League Group - 4 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 5D 3L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Volos NFC) versus 0.80 (Levadiakos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Levadiakos, who boast 6 victories compared to 3 for Volos NFC.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 2–5 with Levadiakos winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Levadiakos have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 48% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Levadiakos 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.935 / defence 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.056 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.065. Levadiakos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 70% | Levadiakos 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 4 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Volos NFC 1.51 / Levadiakos 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.935 / def 1.118 | Levadiakos attack 1.056 / def 1.241 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Levadiakos xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Volos NFC 0 - 3 Levadiakos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Conference League Group - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 41% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 3W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 6W.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.45
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.77
1.26
Levadiakos xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
12%
8.52
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.26 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 20W 11D 34L from 65 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 21L across 65 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 9W 9D 14L from 32 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 11W 10D 11L across 32 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.65 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 20W 11D 34L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 26W 18D 21L in their last 65 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.12 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Volos NFC
0
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 3, Levadiakos have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Levadiakos 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Volos NFC) and 53% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 34% of games; Levadiakos in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 56% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Volos NFC's recent games and 53% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levadiakos run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Volos NFC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levadiakos beat Volos NFC 0-3 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 4, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.51 xG and Levadiakos 1.26 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Levadiakos outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Levadiakos attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 41% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levadiakos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Levadiakos 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.09 PPG, Levadiakos 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levadiakos win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.