Volos NFC 1-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Levadiakos at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Relegation Round - 3 as Volos NFC welcome Levadiakos to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 1W 3D 6L at Panthessaliko Stadio — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levadiakos stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Levadiakos's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Volos NFC's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Volos NFC, 2 for Levadiakos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Levadiakos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Levadiakos trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 46% versus Levadiakos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 39% | Levadiakos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.93 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.787 / defence 1.218 | Levadiakos attack 0.939 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 26 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 44%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Levadiakos 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Levadiakos as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Levadiakos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 40% | Levadiakos 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Volos NFC 0.93 / Levadiakos 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.787 / def 1.218 | Levadiakos attack 0.939 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Levadiakos xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 12 April 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Volos NFC 1 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos part of?
Volos NFC vs Levadiakos is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 28% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Volos NFC and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 2W.
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Levadiakos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
28%
3.62
29%
3.47
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.18
1.25
Levadiakos xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.1 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.25 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Volos NFC's recent record stands at 6W 6D 16L from 28 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 10L across 28 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 0.86 PPG, Levadiakos on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Volos NFC have managed 1W 4D 9L from 14 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 4W 6D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Levadiakos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Volos NFC are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Levadiakos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 6W 6D 16L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Levadiakos away?
Levadiakos's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.50 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Levadiakos have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2023, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Levadiakos specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Volos NFC
0
Draws
7
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 3, Levadiakos have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Volos NFC 0-3 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Volos NFC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 50%, Levadiakos 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Volos NFC) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 50% of games; Levadiakos in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Volos NFC's games and 64% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Volos NFC's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Volos NFC defy the odds to beat Levadiakos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Levadiakos 1-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.93 xG and Levadiakos 1.25 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Levadiakos landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.79 / defence 1.22 against Levadiakos attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 52/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 29% | Levadiakos 44%, with Levadiakos to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Volos NFC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 39%, Levadiakos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Levadiakos's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 0.86 PPG, Levadiakos 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.