Volos NFC 1-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Panthessaliko Stadium plays host to Volos NFC versus Kifisia in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Volos NFC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Volos NFC's home record at Panthessaliko Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Panthessaliko Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kifisia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Kifisia have posted 2W 2D 2L from 6 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Volos NFC's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Volos NFC 2W, Kifisia 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2024, ended 4–1 with Volos NFC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Volos NFC — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Kifisia — key trading statistics (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 42% versus Kifisia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Kifisia 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.61 xG and Kifisia 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.918 / defence 0.988 | Kifisia attack 1.019 / defence 1.234. League average goals — home 1.425 / away 1.238. Kifisia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.234 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Volos NFC games / 12 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 46% | Draw 24% | Kifisia 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Kifisia 3.33. Volos NFC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Volos NFC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 30% | Kifisia 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 46% | Draw 24% | Kifisia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Volos NFC 1.61 / Kifisia 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.918 / def 0.988 | Kifisia attack 1.019 / def 1.234 | league avg home 1.425 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Kifisia xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Kifisia kick off?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Volos NFC vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Kifisia part of?
Volos NFC vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 46% chance of winning, Kifisia a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Volos NFC and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
Record (3 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 0 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Kifisia in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Kifisia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Kifisia's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Kifisia's attack (1.02x) against Volos NFC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 38/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.08
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.86
1.25
Kifisia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
6%
17.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.25 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Kifisia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Volos NFC come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 0D 5L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kifisia sit at 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Kifisia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Volos NFC's home form reads 3W 0D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Kifisia have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Volos NFC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.67 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 7W 0D 5L in their last 12 games (1.75 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Kifisia away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.80 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kifisia won 3-0 on 11 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Volos NFC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kifisia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Volos NFC
1
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Kifisia?
From 5 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 2, Kifisia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Kifisia 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Volos NFC, 80% for Kifisia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Volos NFC and 80% for Kifisia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Volos NFC's games and 80% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Volos NFC vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Volos NFC's matches and 80% of Kifisia's.
Do Volos NFC and Kifisia tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Kifisia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Kifisia finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.61 xG and Kifisia 1.25 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Kifisia attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 38/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 46% | Draw 24% | Kifisia 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Kifisia 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Volos NFC arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.