Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet in-form Aris Thessalonikis provide a compelling counter-argument — this Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Conference League Group - 5 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 2W 5D 3L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Volos NFC.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Aris Thessalonikis have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 48% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 50% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.936 / defence 1.116 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.829 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.066. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Volos NFC 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Group - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Volos NFC 1.16 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.936 / def 1.116 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.829 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 1 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Conference League Group - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 38% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (9 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 2 | Aris Thessalonikis 6W.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.94x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
38%
2.66
34%
2.97
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.15
0.99
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Volos NFC and 0.99 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 19W 11D 32L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 25W 21D 16L from 62 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.15 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 19W 11D 32L in their last 62 games (1.10 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 25W 21D 16L in their last 62 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.16 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Volos NFC) and 36% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 32%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 55% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Volos NFC's recent games and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Volos NFC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Volos NFC 1-2 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Conference League Group - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.99 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 50%, Aris Thessalonikis 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.