Volos NFC 1-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Volos NFC face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Aris Thessalonikis travel to Panthessaliko Stadium to take on Volos NFC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Volos NFC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Volos NFC have posted 4W 1D 5L at Panthessaliko Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Volos NFC are significantly better at Panthessaliko Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Aris Thessalonikis have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Aris Thessalonikis are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Aris Thessalonikis have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Volos NFC.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Aris Thessalonikis winning.
It is worth noting that Aris Thessalonikis have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 42% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 48% | Aris Thessalonikis 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.713 / defence 1.191 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.791 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.139. Volos NFC's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Volos NFC games / 46 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Aris Thessalonikis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Volos NFC 0.83 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.713 / def 1.191 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.791 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Volos NFC 1 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadium.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 28% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (7 meetings): Volos NFC 1W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 5W.
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Volos NFC's attack at 0.71x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
28%
3.58
31%
3.18
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
1.91
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 15.9 | 8.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.07 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, Volos NFC have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 18W 7D 27L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Volos NFC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 22W 16D 14L from 52 games, 1.58 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Aris Thessalonikis are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Volos NFC have posted 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 5D 11L from 25 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.13 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Aris Thessalonikis in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 18W 7D 27L in their last 52 games (1.17 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 22W 16D 14L in their last 52 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Aris Thessalonikis's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.16 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when Aris Thessalonikis won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Volos NFC
2
Draws
7
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 1, Aris Thessalonikis have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Volos NFC 1-2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 40%, Aris Thessalonikis 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Volos NFC) and 40% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis in 32%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 52% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Volos NFC's recent games and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 1-1 at Panthessaliko Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 0.83 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.07 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.71 / defence 1.19 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.79 / defence 0.86, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 28% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 41%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Aris Thessalonikis arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.