PAS Giannina 1-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 5 as PAS Giannina welcome PAOK to Stadio Zosimades. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 September 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's home record at Stadio Zosimades: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 1.40 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAOK trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 54% versus PAOK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 46% | PAOK 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.29 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.911 / defence 0.865 | PAOK attack 0.890 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.071. Data: 30 PAS Giannina games / 30 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.27 | Draw 2.78 | PAOK 5.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 20% | PAOK 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Sep 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG PAS Giannina 1.29 / PAOK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.911 / def 0.865 | PAOK attack 0.890 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.82
PAOK xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs PAOK kick off?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
PAS Giannina 1 - 3 PAOK.
Where is PAS Giannina vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs PAOK part of?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 44% chance of winning, PAOK a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAS Giannina and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 2W | Draws 1 | PAOK 3W.
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.91x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
44%
2.29
36%
2.75
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.12
0.82
PAOK xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.82 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 15D 14L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAS Giannina's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.67 points per game from 18 outings (8W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.59 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 14L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while PAOK have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.33 PPG; PAOK away: 1.67 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and PAOK runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 14 January 2024, when PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 44% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 39%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play PAOK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 44% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and PAOK tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, PAOK in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 1-3 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.29 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against PAOK attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a PAOK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 46%, PAOK 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.