PAS Giannina 2-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAS Giannina face Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 21 December 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, PAS Giannina have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Zosimades, PAS Giannina have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against PAS Giannina's 0 victories.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 39% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 41% | Olympiakos Piraeus 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.98 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.999 / defence 1.496 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.097 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.058. Data: 39 PAS Giannina games / 39 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 5.56 | Draw 3.33 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Dec 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG PAS Giannina 0.98 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.999 / def 1.496 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.097 / def 0.807 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 December 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
PAS Giannina 2 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 18% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 1 | Olympiakos Piraeus 4W.
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
PAS Giannina's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Olympiakos Piraeus's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
18%
5.57
30%
3.29
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.72
1.74
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
5.57
18%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
3%
31.56
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.74 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
PAS Giannina come into this having played 49 games, going 14W 13D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Olympiakos Piraeus sit at 2.20 PPG from 49 outings (32W 12D 5L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
PAS Giannina's home form reads 10W 7D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — PAS Giannina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Olympiakos Piraeus have taken 2.12 points per game from 24 outings (15W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 1.63 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 13D 22L in their last 49 games (1.12 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 12D 5L in their last 49 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.54 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.12 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
2
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 3-1 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 54%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 54% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 14, as PAS Giannina and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.98 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.74 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.00 / defence 1.50 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.10 / defence 0.81, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 18% | Draw 30% | Olympiakos Piraeus 52%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 41%, Olympiakos Piraeus 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.