PAS Giannina 2-0 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAS Giannina at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.

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Match Analysis

PAS Giannina host Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, PAS Giannina have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Zosimades — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Apollon Smirnis — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Apollon Smirnis, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Apollon Smirnis's away record: 0W 1D 7L from 8 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.12 PPG). Away from home they average 0.38 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game.

On current form, PAS Giannina have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, PAS Giannina have won 0, Apollon Smirnis 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Apollon Smirnis winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Apollon Smirnis in-play and half-time data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 65% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 47% versus Apollon Smirnis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 35% | Apollon Smirnis 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.44 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.963 / defence 1.223 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.532 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.152. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.550 — this is suppressing PAS Giannina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 PAS Giannina games / 17 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 54% | Draw 27% | Apollon Smirnis 19%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Apollon Smirnis 5.26. PAS Giannina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 60% | Apollon Smirnis 38%.

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