PAS Giannina 2-3 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host AEK Athens FC at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Championship Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAS Giannina have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Zosimades — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Zosimades. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAS Giannina 1.30 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for PAS Giannina, 2 for AEK Athens FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with AEK Athens FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 30% versus AEK Athens FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAS Giannina 20% | AEK Athens FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.19 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.031 / defence 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.913 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 0.987 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAS Giannina games / 26 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 31%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | AEK Athens FC 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAS Giannina are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAS Giannina 40% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG PAS Giannina 1.19 / AEK Athens FC 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.031 / def 1.073 | AEK Athens FC attack 0.913 / def 1.171 | league avg home 0.987 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.03
AEK Athens FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
PAS Giannina 2 - 3 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 40% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 2W.
What form are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (1.03) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.45
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
AEK Athens FC xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.03 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 11W 10D 9L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-D in the last five.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 6D 10L across 30 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-D-L-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAS Giannina on 1.43 PPG, AEK Athens FC on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 7W 5D 3L from 15 games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 6W 5D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PAS Giannina have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Current Season
AEK Athens FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 14W 6D 10L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.73 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.53 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
0
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 47%, AEK Athens FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (PAS Giannina) and 47% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 53% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 47% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AEK Athens FC defy the odds to beat PAS Giannina 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 2-3 at Stadio Zosimades, Championship Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.19 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. PAS Giannina beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AEK Athens FC outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against AEK Athens FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.17, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 40% | Draw 29% | AEK Athens FC 31%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AEK Athens FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 20%, AEK Athens FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.43 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.