PAOK vs Volos NFC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours PAOK (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAOK face Volos NFC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Volos NFC travel to Toumba Stadium to take on PAOK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 December 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
PAOK — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAOK's home record at Toumba Stadium: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Volos NFC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Volos NFC's away record: 0W 0D 10L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
PAOK hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 10 previous encounters compared to 2 for Volos NFC, with 0 draws in between.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–2 with Volos NFC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both PAOK and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
PAOK trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Volos NFC trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Volos NFC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 59% | Volos NFC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.09 xG and Volos NFC 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.319 / defence 0.800 | Volos NFC attack 0.843 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 0.997. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 PAOK games / 28 Volos NFC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 9%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Volos NFC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (69%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Volos NFC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 69% | Draw 22% | Volos NFC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG PAOK 2.09 / Volos NFC 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.319 / def 0.800 | Volos NFC attack 0.843 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.475 / away 0.997 • Poisson stance: PAOK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Volos NFC xG
44%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Volos NFC kick off?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Volos NFC part of?
PAOK vs Volos NFC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 69% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 9% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both PAOK and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 8W | Draws 0 | Volos NFC 2W.
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in?
PAOK (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from PAOK's attack rating (1.32) and Volos NFC's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus PAOK's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (28/28 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
69%
1.45
22%
4.64
9%
10.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.77
0.67
Volos NFC xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
10.66
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
12%
8.11
Win to Nil
35%
2.84
1%
86.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for PAOK and 0.67 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Volos NFC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 20W 10D 4L record — D-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Volos NFC's form line: 9W 6D 19L from 34 games, 0.97 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Volos NFC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Volos NFC.
Venue Form
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.53 PPG from 17 outings (13W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Volos NFC have gone 4W 0D 13L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
PAOK are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.00 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Volos NFC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 20W 10D 4L in their last 34 games (2.06 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 6D 19L in their last 34 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Volos NFC away?
PAOK's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.53 PPG; Volos NFC away: 0.71 PPG.
Have PAOK or Volos NFC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Volos NFC in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Jan 2024, when PAOK won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAOK's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
PAOK
0
Draws
2
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 8, Volos NFC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Volos NFC 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Volos NFC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
PAOK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 29%, Volos NFC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (PAOK) and 53% (Volos NFC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches; Volos NFC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Volos NFC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of PAOK's recent matches and 47% of Volos NFC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of PAOK's recent games and 53% of Volos NFC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Volos NFC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.