PAOK 1-2 OFI – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates PAOK at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAOK vs OFI encounter.

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Match Analysis

PAOK host OFI at Stadio Toumbas in Super League 1 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

PAOK — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, PAOK have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, OFI have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

OFI away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

PAOK are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for PAOK, 1 for OFI and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2024, ended PAOK 4–0 OFI — a PAOK win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

PAOK in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

OFI in-play and half-time data (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 56% versus OFI 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 63% | OFI 54%). Note also that OFI surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while PAOK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.46 xG and OFI 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.036 / defence 0.869 | OFI attack 1.145 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.168. OFI's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. Data: built from PAOK's last 34 games and OFI's last 34.

Result probabilities: PAOK 43% | Draw 29% | OFI 29%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.35 | Draw 3.49 | OFI 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAOK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and OFI's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 50% (last 10 home games) | OFI 70% (last 10 away games).

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