Panetolikos 0-0 Volos NFC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 37%, yet in-form Panetolikos provide a compelling counter-argument — this Panetolikos vs Volos NFC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Relegation Round - 6 sees Volos NFC travel to Stadio Panetolikou to take on Panetolikos. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Volos NFC stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Volos NFC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Panetolikos carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Volos NFC in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 52% versus Volos NFC 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 55% | Volos NFC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.99 xG and Volos NFC 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.780 / defence 1.097 | Volos NFC attack 0.943 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Panetolikos's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Volos NFC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Panetolikos's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Panetolikos games / 26 Volos NFC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 32% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 37%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.12 | Draw 3.33 | Volos NFC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Panetolikos (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 40% | Volos NFC 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Volos NFC | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Saturday 7 May 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 32% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Panetolikos 0.99 / Volos NFC 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.780 / def 1.097 | Volos NFC attack 0.943 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Volos NFC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kick off?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 May 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Volos NFC.
Where is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC part of?
Panetolikos vs Volos NFC is a Relegation Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 32% chance of winning, Volos NFC a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panetolikos and Volos NFC will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Volos NFC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Volos NFC (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Volos NFC's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Volos NFC's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
32%
3.08
30%
3.31
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.08
1.09
Volos NFC xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 13.6 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Volos NFC expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.09 for Volos NFC, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Volos NFC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Panetolikos come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 6D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-W.
On the other side, Volos NFC sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.16 PPG, Volos NFC on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Panetolikos's home form reads 4W 3D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Volos NFC have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (3W 6D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Volos NFC are on 1.35 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC in 65%.
Last 31 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Current Season
Volos NFC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Volos NFC in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Volos NFC have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Volos NFC away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Volos NFC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Panetolikos and Volos NFC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2025, when Volos NFC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting Volos NFC specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Panetolikos
2
Draws
5
Volos NFC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 3, Volos NFC have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Volos NFC last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when Volos NFC 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Volos NFC?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Panetolikos at 53%, Volos NFC at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Panetolikos and 67% for Volos NFC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Volos NFC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Volos NFC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Panetolikos's games and 80% of Volos NFC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panetolikos vs Volos NFC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Panetolikos's matches and 67% of Volos NFC's.
Do Panetolikos and Volos NFC tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Volos NFC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Panetolikou, Relegation Round - 6, as Panetolikos and Volos NFC drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.99 xG and Volos NFC 1.09 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Volos NFC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Volos NFC attack 0.94 / defence 1.29, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 32% | Draw 30% | Volos NFC 37%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 55%, Volos NFC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Volos NFC's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.16 PPG, Volos NFC 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Volos NFC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.