Panetolikos 0-1 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panetolikos and Panathinaikos meet at Stadio Panetolikou in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panetolikos have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos at Stadio Panetolikou this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Panetolikou this season.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Panathinaikos have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Panathinaikos arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Panetolikos, 1 for Panathinaikos and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Panetolikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Panetolikos half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Panathinaikos half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 52% versus Panathinaikos 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 50% | Panathinaikos 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.83 xG and Panathinaikos 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.865 / defence 1.162 | Panathinaikos attack 1.554 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.101. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Panathinaikos have an above-average attack strength of 1.554 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Panetolikos games / 37 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 12% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 61%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 8.33 | Draw 3.70 | Panathinaikos 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Panathinaikos (61%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Panetolikos 40% | Panathinaikos 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 12% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Panetolikos 0.83 / Panathinaikos 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.865 / def 1.162 | Panathinaikos attack 1.554 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Panathinaikos xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Panathinaikos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos part of?
Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 12% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 61% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Panetolikos and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panathinaikos?
Record (2 meetings): Panetolikos 1W | Draws 0 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are Panetolikos and Panathinaikos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Panathinaikos (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.55x) against Panetolikos's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.99.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
12%
8.38
27%
3.76
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.82
1.99
Panathinaikos xG
8.38
12%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
2%
61.27
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.99 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 13W 11D 20L from 44 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Panathinaikos, meanwhile, have gone 27W 8D 9L across 44 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panetolikos heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 5W 5D 10L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Panathinaikos's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Panathinaikos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.57 scored and 0.64 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Panathinaikos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 27W 8D 9L in their last 44 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Panathinaikos away?
Panathinaikos's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.00 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Panathinaikos won 0-5 on 16 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Panetolikos
1
Draws
8
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 1, Panathinaikos have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 0-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Panathinaikos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 45%, Panathinaikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Panetolikos) and 45% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 45%; Panetolikos have failed to score in 40% of games; Panathinaikos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 40% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Panetolikos's recent games and 45% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Panathinaikos edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panathinaikos beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.83 xG and Panathinaikos 1.99 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Panathinaikos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Panathinaikos attack 1.55 / defence 0.79, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 12% | Draw 27% | Panathinaikos 61%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 50%, Panathinaikos 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (44 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (44 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.