Panetolikos 0-0 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Panetolikos at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Levadiakos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Panetolikou plays host to Panetolikos versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Panetolikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panetolikos's home record at Stadio Panetolikou: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Levadiakos (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Levadiakos have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Panetolikos 0W, Levadiakos 0W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Panetolikos — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 28% versus Levadiakos 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Panetolikos 20% | Levadiakos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.820 / defence 0.836 | Levadiakos attack 1.001 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.147. Data: 51 Panetolikos games / 25 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 33%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Levadiakos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panetolikos at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panetolikos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panetolikos 30% | Levadiakos 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Panetolikos 1.03 / Levadiakos 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.820 / def 0.836 | Levadiakos attack 1.001 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Panetolikos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Levadiakos xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Panetolikos 0 - 0 Levadiakos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos part of?
Panetolikos vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 36% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panetolikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Panetolikos and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): Panetolikos 0W | Draws 4 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Levadiakos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.00x) against Panetolikos's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 51/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panetolikos Win
36%
2.74
31%
3.24
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
1.99
0.96
Levadiakos xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Panetolikos and 0.96 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Panetolikos's recent record stands at 9W 5D 11L from 25 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levadiakos, meanwhile, have gone 6W 9D 10L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Panetolikos against 1.08 for Levadiakos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Panetolikos have managed 5W 1D 6L from 12 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levadiakos's away record stands at 3W 5D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panetolikos are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.20 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Panetolikos have seen both teams score in 28% of their recent games; Levadiakos in 60%.
Defensively: Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Levadiakos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Levadiakos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.33 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levadiakos won 6-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panetolikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panetolikos
5
Draws
3
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 2, Levadiakos have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Levadiakos 0-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Levadiakos?
Levadiakos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panetolikos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 25%, Levadiakos 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Panetolikos) and 50% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 67% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Panetolikos's recent games and 50% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Panetolikos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos and Levadiakos finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 26, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 1.03 xG and Levadiakos 0.96 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Levadiakos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.82 / defence 0.84 against Levadiakos attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 51/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 36% | Draw 31% | Levadiakos 33%, with Panetolikos to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 20%, Levadiakos 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Levadiakos's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.28 PPG, Levadiakos 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Levadiakos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.