Panetolikos 0-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Panetolikos welcome Atromitos to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panetolikos have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Panetolikou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Atromitos — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 1.10 PPG, Atromitos 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Panetolikos, 2 for Atromitos and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Atromitos in-play and half-time data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 42% versus Atromitos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 42% | Atromitos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.833 / defence 0.919 | Atromitos attack 1.139 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.104. Data: 46 Panetolikos games / 46 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 40%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Atromitos 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atromitos as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atromitos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | Atromitos 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Feb 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 30% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Panetolikos 0.97 / Atromitos 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.833 / def 0.919 | Atromitos attack 1.139 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Atromitos xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 2 February 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Panetolikos 0 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Panetolikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panetolikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 30% chance of winning, Atromitos a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panetolikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Record (5 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 2W.
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Panetolikos's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.38
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.12
1.16
Atromitos xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.35
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.16 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 14D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (14W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.17 PPG, Atromitos on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 10W 4D 12L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.15 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 17D 22L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.31 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Panetolikos or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panetolikos have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Atromitos in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Panetolikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panetolikos
1
Draws
5
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 4, Atromitos have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and Atromitos?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 35%, Atromitos 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panetolikos) and 58% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 35% of games; Atromitos in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 54% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Panetolikos's recent games and 58% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out Panetolikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Panetolikos 0-1 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.97 xG and Atromitos 1.16 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panetolikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.83 / defence 0.92 against Atromitos attack 1.14 / defence 1.00, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 30% | Draw 30% | Atromitos 40%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 42%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atromitos's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.17 PPG, Atromitos 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Atromitos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.