Panathinaikos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus meet at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Panathinaikos have posted 9W 1D 0L at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis — 2.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Panathinaikos are significantly better at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Olympiakos Piraeus arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Panathinaikos 1W, Olympiakos Piraeus 1W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 2–4 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Panathinaikos — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 52% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 57% | Olympiakos Piraeus 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.134 / defence 0.846 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.243 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.243 — the away xG of 1.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 Panathinaikos games / 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Panathinaikos 60% | Olympiakos Piraeus 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Panathinaikos 1.01 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.134 / def 0.846 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.243 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panathinaikos 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 32% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (5 meetings): Panathinaikos 1W | Draws 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.13) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.70), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.24x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.40
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 38W 15D 14L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 45W 12D 10L from 67 games, 2.19 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.93 PPG for Panathinaikos against 2.19 for Olympiakos Piraeus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.21 PPG from 33 outings (22W 7D 4L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 19W 7D 7L from 33 away games — 1.94 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.03 scored and 0.84 conceded. Panathinaikos's scoring rate against Olympiakos Piraeus's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Olympiakos Piraeus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 38W 15D 14L in their last 67 games (1.93 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 45W 12D 10L in their last 67 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.21 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.94 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Panathinaikos
4
Draws
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 2, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 52%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Panathinaikos) and 42% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panathinaikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 0-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Championship Round - 6, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.01 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.13 / defence 0.85 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.24 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 32% | Draw 29% | Olympiakos Piraeus 39%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 57%, Olympiakos Piraeus 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panathinaikos 1.93 PPG, Olympiakos Piraeus 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.