Panathinaikos 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Panathinaikos (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Panathinaikos face Aris Thessalonikis.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Super League 1, Championship Round - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 April 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
Panathinaikos (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Panathinaikos's home record at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Panathinaikos. A 0.90 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.00 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Panathinaikos lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Panathinaikos winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 38% versus Aris Thessalonikis 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 44% | Aris Thessalonikis 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.49 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 1.170 / defence 0.728 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.912 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.361. Aris Thessalonikis's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.728 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Panathinaikos games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.04 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.76. Panathinaikos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Panathinaikos as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Panathinaikos 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Panathinaikos 1.49 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 1.170 / def 0.728 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.912 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 49% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (5 meetings): Panathinaikos 3W | Draws 1 | Aris Thessalonikis 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Panathinaikos's attack rating (1.17) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.91x) against Panathinaikos's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
49%
2.06
31%
3.24
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.39
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 69 outings, Panathinaikos have picked up 2.13 PPG on a 44W 15D 10L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 29W 13D 27L from 69 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Panathinaikos are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Panathinaikos have posted 2.21 PPG from 34 outings (22W 9D 3L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 9W 7D 18L from 34 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.45 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 44W 15D 10L in their last 69 games (2.13 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 29W 13D 27L in their last 69 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.21 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panathinaikos have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panathinaikos 3-1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 38%, Aris Thessalonikis 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Panathinaikos) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat Panathinaikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat Panathinaikos 0-1 at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.49 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 1.17 / defence 0.73 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.91 / defence 0.78, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 49% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Aris Thessalonikis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 44%, Aris Thessalonikis 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Aris Thessalonikis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.