Olympiakos Piraeus 0-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Olympiakos Piraeus's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Olympiakos Piraeus, 2.10 for PAOK — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Olympiakos Piraeus 4W, PAOK 3W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 42% versus PAOK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | PAOK 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG and PAOK 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.132 / defence 0.691 | PAOK attack 1.369 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 1.136. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.369 — the away xG of 1.07 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 49 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 28% | PAOK 30%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | PAOK 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | PAOK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 28% | PAOK 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 / PAOK 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.132 / def 0.691 | PAOK attack 1.369 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.367 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.07
PAOK xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Olympiakos Piraeus 0 - 0 PAOK.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 42% chance of winning, PAOK a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 0 | PAOK 3W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Olympiakos Piraeus's attack rating (1.13) and PAOK's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.37x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
42%
2.36
28%
3.61
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.41
1.07
PAOK xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
8%
12.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.07 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 39W 11D 5L from 55 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK, meanwhile, have gone 34W 9D 12L across 55 games — 2.02 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.33 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 2.02 for PAOK. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 21W 5D 1L from 27 games — 2.52 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAOK's away record stands at 15W 5D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.00 scored and 0.95 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against PAOK's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games; PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 39W 11D 5L in their last 55 games (2.33 PPG), while PAOK have gone 34W 9D 12L in their last 55 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or PAOK away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.52 PPG; PAOK away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
4
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, PAOK have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-1 PAOK.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, PAOK 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 67% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, PAOK in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Olympiakos Piraeus's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus and PAOK finished level at 0-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.33 xG and PAOK 1.07 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 1.3 short of their projected output. PAOK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.13 / defence 0.69 against PAOK attack 1.37 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 42% | Draw 28% | PAOK 30%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, PAOK 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
PAOK's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33 PPG, PAOK 2.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.