Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Kalamata travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 October 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 4W 3D 3L at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this season.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kalamata have recorded 3W 1D 3L from 7 outings — 1.43 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.71. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalamata have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kalamata away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Olympiakos Piraeus are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.67 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.43). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Kalamata trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 14% versus Kalamata 71%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 0% | Kalamata 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 xG and Kalamata 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.825 / defence 0.778 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 0.976. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.778 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 6 Kalamata games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Draw 36% | Kalamata 21%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 2.33 | Draw 2.78 | Kalamata 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Kalamata 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Draw 36% | Kalamata 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.22 / Kalamata 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.825 / def 0.778 | Kalamata attack 1.046 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.439 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Kalamata xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 43% chance of winning, Kalamata a 21% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Kalamata (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.71 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 0.82x the league average against Kalamata's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalamata's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
43%
2.32
36%
2.79
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.01
0.80
Kalamata xG
2.32
43%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
16.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.9 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.80 for Kalamata, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kalamata's form line: 3W 1D 3L from 7 games, 1.43 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Kalamata, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalamata.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Kalamata have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.29 conceded per game recently; Kalamata are on 1.86 scored and 1.71 conceded. Kalamata's attacking output running into Olympiakos Piraeus's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 14% of their recent games; Kalamata in 71%.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Kalamata
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Kalamata have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Kalamata away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.00 PPG; Kalamata away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Kalamata been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Kalamata in 0%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Kalamata are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Olympiakos Piraeus 0% BTTS, Kalamata 67%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 33% for Kalamata.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 33% of games; Kalamata in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Kalamata away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Kalamata?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 67% of Kalamata's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 33% of Kalamata's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Kalamata in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.