Olympiakos Piraeus 3-0 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Atromitos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Atromitos travel to Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Atromitos have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atromitos away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Olympiakos Piraeus have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Atromitos have managed just 0 wins.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 48% versus Atromitos 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 48% | Atromitos 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG and Atromitos 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.392 / defence 0.808 | Atromitos attack 1.025 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.245. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.392 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 36 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 24%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 4.17. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Atromitos 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 / Atromitos 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.392 / def 0.808 | Atromitos attack 1.025 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Atromitos xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 0 Atromitos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance of winning, Atromitos a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Record (7 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 5W | Draws 2 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.39x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
51%
1.94
25%
4.03
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.67
1.03
Atromitos xG
1.94
51%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
5%
21.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 1.03 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 31W 7D 4L from 42 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 18L across 42 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 17W 4D 0L from 21 games — 2.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 11W 3D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — Atromitos travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.19 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 31W 7D 4L in their last 42 games (2.38 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 14W 10D 18L in their last 42 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Atromitos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.62 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Atromitos in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 8, Atromitos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 57%, Atromitos 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 52% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 52% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 52% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Atromitos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Olympiakos Piraeus run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Atromitos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Atromitos 3-0 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.64 xG and Atromitos 1.03 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atromitos landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.39 / defence 0.81 against Atromitos attack 1.02 / defence 0.82, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 24%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Atromitos 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atromitos's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.38 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Atromitos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.