Olympiakos Piraeus 2-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis meet at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki in Super League 1, Championship Round - 2. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.20 PPG lead over Aris Thessalonikis (2.40 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Aris Thessalonikis in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading & In-Play
Olympiakos Piraeus — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 49% versus Aris Thessalonikis 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 49% | Aris Thessalonikis 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.660 / defence 0.717 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.937 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.660 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 8%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.49 | Draw 4.00 | Aris Thessalonikis 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 45% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.660 / def 0.717 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.937 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 67% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 8% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.66x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.94x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
67%
1.50
25%
4.02
8%
11.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.71
0.67
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.50
67%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
11.83
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
13%
7.67
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
90.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.67 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Olympiakos Piraeus's recent record stands at 42W 16D 5L from 63 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis, meanwhile, have gone 30W 12D 21L across 63 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aris Thessalonikis heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Olympiakos Piraeus have managed 22W 7D 2L from 31 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aris Thessalonikis's away record stands at 12W 4D 15L across 31 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.24 scored and 0.86 conceded. Olympiakos Piraeus's scoring rate against Aris Thessalonikis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 42W 16D 5L in their last 63 games (2.25 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 30W 12D 21L in their last 63 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.35 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-1 on 27 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
3
Draws
2
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Aris Thessalonikis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 36% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%; Aris Thessalonikis in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 29% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 36% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Championship Round - 2, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Aris Thessalonikis drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 2.04 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.67 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.66 / defence 0.72 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 67% | Draw 25% | Aris Thessalonikis 8%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 49%, Aris Thessalonikis 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.