OFI 0-2 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as OFI take on Olympiakos Piraeus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 9). The game is scheduled for Monday 30 October 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OFI have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, OFI have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Olympiakos Piraeus stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Olympiakos Piraeus's 2.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of OFI's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for OFI. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended OFI 1–2 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Olympiakos Piraeus win.
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Profile
OFI in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Olympiakos Piraeus 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: OFI surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.980 / defence 0.884 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.256 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.035. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.761, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling OFI's projected output down. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack rating of 1.256, which lifts their away xG to 1.15. Data: built from OFI's last 34 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 34.
Result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.95 | Draw 2.80 | Olympiakos Piraeus 3.29. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Monday 30 October 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG OFI 1.22 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.980 / def 0.884 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.256 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus FAQs
What time does OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Monday 30 October 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
OFI 0 - 2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 9) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 34% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.98) and Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Olympiakos Piraeus's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 34 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
36%
2.80
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
OFI xG
Total xG
2.37
1.15
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for OFI and 1.15 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, OFI have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 13W 15D 13L record — D-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Olympiakos Piraeus's form line: 25W 11D 5L from 41 games, 2.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against OFI.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, OFI have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 19 home games (6W 8D 5L).
On the road, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 10W 6D 3L from their last 19 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
OFI are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.15 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
OFI (Home) vs Olympiakos Piraeus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 13W 15D 13L in their last 41 games (1.32 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 25W 11D 5L in their last 41 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.37 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 1.89 PPG.
Have OFI or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus won Olympiakos Piraeus 4-0 OFI.
OFI's record when hosting Olympiakos Piraeus specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
OFI
0
Draws
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 1, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 47%, Olympiakos Piraeus 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (OFI) and 47% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus in 53%; OFI have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Olympiakos Piraeus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of OFI's recent matches and 42% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Olympiakos Piraeus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of OFI's recent matches and 68% of Olympiakos Piraeus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over OFI.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat OFI 0-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 9, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.22 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.15 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Olympiakos Piraeus outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.26 / defence 0.76, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 34% | Draw 36% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Olympiakos Piraeus 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.