OFI 0-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Lamia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
OFI and Lamia meet at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 October 2021 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.17 PPG across 6 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 4D 1L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, OFI have gone 0W 2D 1L this season (3 games, 0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lamia (all games): 1W 1D 4L across 6 Super League 1 outings this term — 0.67 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamia have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 0D 2L from 3 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.17 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — OFI have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Lamia in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Lamia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — OFI 67% and Lamia 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 50% | Lamia 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.24 xG and Lamia 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.003 / defence 1.370 | Lamia attack 0.847 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.190. Data: 6 OFI games / 6 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 28% | Lamia 40%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Lamia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamia at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: OFI 67% | Lamia 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 33% | Draw 28% | Lamia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG OFI 1.24 / Lamia 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.003 / def 1.370 | Lamia attack 0.847 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lamia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lamia xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Lamia kick off?
OFI vs Lamia kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Lamia?
OFI 0 - 0 Lamia.
Where is OFI vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Lamia part of?
OFI vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 33% chance of winning, Lamia a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are OFI and Lamia in?
OFI (all comps): 1W-4D-1L in 6 | 1.17 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Lamia (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.00x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (0.85x) against OFI's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.61
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
OFI xG
Total xG
2.62
1.38
Lamia xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
29%
3.44
Win to Nil
8%
12.13
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are OFI and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for OFI and 1.38 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 4D 1L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamia sit at 0.67 PPG from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Lamia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 0W 2D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.67 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.17 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Lamia have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: OFI have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lamia in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
Lamia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Lamia in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 1W 4D 1L in their last 6 games (1.17 PPG), while Lamia have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Lamia away?
Lamia's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.67 PPG; Lamia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have OFI or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lamia in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 1-4 on 13 Feb 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when OFI 3-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Lamia?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for OFI, 67% for Lamia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for OFI and 67% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; OFI have failed to score in 33% of games; Lamia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of OFI's games and 67% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is OFI vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of OFI's matches and 67% of Lamia's.
Do OFI and Lamia tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lamia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at OFI's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 7, as OFI and Lamia drew 0-0 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.24 xG and Lamia 1.38 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. OFI fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.00 / defence 1.37 against Lamia attack 0.85 / defence 1.14, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 33% | Draw 28% | Lamia 40%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 50%, Lamia 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamia's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.17 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.