OFI 1-2 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atromitos at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this OFI vs Atromitos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis plays host to OFI versus Atromitos in Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
OFI have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Atromitos (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for OFI, 1.60 for Atromitos — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: OFI 1W, Atromitos 0W, 5D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
OFI goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Atromitos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 52% versus Atromitos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 56% | Atromitos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.32 xG and Atromitos 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.136 / defence 1.232 | Atromitos attack 1.170 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.094. Data: 52 OFI games / 52 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 43%. Fair-value odds: OFI 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Atromitos 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atromitos at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atromitos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: OFI 40% | Atromitos 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Conference League Play-off Group - 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 32% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG OFI 1.32 / Atromitos 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.136 / def 1.232 | Atromitos attack 1.170 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Atromitos (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Atromitos xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Atromitos kick off?
OFI vs Atromitos kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Atromitos?
OFI 1 - 2 Atromitos.
Where is OFI vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Atromitos part of?
OFI vs Atromitos is a Conference League Play-off Group - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 32% chance of winning, Atromitos a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atromitos the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both OFI and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): OFI 1W | Draws 5 | Atromitos 0W.
What form are OFI and Atromitos in?
OFI (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
OFI's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Atromitos's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Atromitos's attack (1.17x) against OFI's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atromitos Win
32%
3.12
25%
4.07
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
OFI xG
Total xG
2.90
1.58
Atromitos xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for OFI and 1.58 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
OFI come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 20D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atromitos sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (17W 18D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for OFI against 1.17 for Atromitos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
OFI's home form reads 11W 9D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Atromitos have taken 1.21 points per game from 29 outings (9W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
OFI are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.15 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Atromitos in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 17W 20D 22L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 17W 18D 24L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Atromitos away?
OFI's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.45 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, OFI have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atromitos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
OFI
6
Draws
2
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Atromitos have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Atromitos 1-2 OFI.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 52%, Atromitos 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (OFI) and 59% (Atromitos). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: OFI keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Atromitos in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of OFI's recent matches and 55% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of OFI's matches and 59% of Atromitos's.
Do OFI and Atromitos tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atromitos edge out OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Conference League Play-off Group - 1, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.32 xG and Atromitos 1.58 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.14 / defence 1.23 against Atromitos attack 1.17 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 32% | Draw 25% | Atromitos 43%, with Atromitos to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 56%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Atromitos's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.20 PPG, Atromitos 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.