OFI 3-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
OFI welcome Aris Thessalonikis to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1 (matchday 1). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
OFI — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
OFI at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
OFI in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Aris Thessalonikis in-play and half-time data (last 33 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus Aris Thessalonikis 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 42% | Aris Thessalonikis 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 0.893 / defence 1.037 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.079. Data: built from OFI's last 26 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 26. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.88 | Draw 2.96 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: OFI 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (OFI 26 games, Aris Thessalonikis 26) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG OFI 1.16 / Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 0.893 / def 1.037 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.981 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: OFI (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis FAQs
What time does OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
OFI 3 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 1) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 35% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both OFI and Aris Thessalonikis will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (0.89) and Aris Thessalonikis's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Aris Thessalonikis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 26 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 26, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
35%
2.88
34%
2.96
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
OFI xG
Total xG
2.26
1.10
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for OFI and 1.10 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, OFI have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 10W 11D 12L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 14W 5D 14L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: OFI on 1.24 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, OFI have posted 0.94 PPG from their last 17 home games (3W 7D 7L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 4D 9L from their last 17 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.55 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
OFI (Home) vs Aris Thessalonikis (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
❓ OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Form FAQs
What form are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 11D 12L in their last 33 games (1.24 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 14W 5D 14L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
OFI's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 0.94 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.94 PPG.
Have OFI or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Aris Thessalonikis have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won OFI 3-0 Aris Thessalonikis.
OFI's record when hosting Aris Thessalonikis specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
OFI
1
Draws
5
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did OFI and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 47%, Aris Thessalonikis 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (OFI) and 47% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: OFI have failed to score in 47% of games; Aris Thessalonikis in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs Aris Thessalonikis Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and Aris Thessalonikis matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of OFI's recent matches and 35% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and Aris Thessalonikis matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of OFI's recent games and 47% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Aris Thessalonikis matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of OFI's recent matches and 71% of Aris Thessalonikis's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out Aris Thessalonikis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.16 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 1.10 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. OFI beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.98 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 35% | Draw 34% | Aris Thessalonikis 32%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 42%, Aris Thessalonikis 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (33 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — OFI 1.24 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. OFI (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.