OFI 1-2 Apollon Smirnis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates OFI at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this OFI vs Apollon Smirnis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
OFI host Apollon Smirnis at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, OFI have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, OFI have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Apollon Smirnis — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Apollon Smirnis have posted 1W 0D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
OFI carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for OFI, 0 for Apollon Smirnis and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with OFI winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Apollon Smirnis trading profile (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 57% versus Apollon Smirnis 21%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 54% | Apollon Smirnis 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.95 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.157 / defence 1.354 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.532 / defence 1.705. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.050. Apollon Smirnis bring a strong defensive rating of 1.705 — this is suppressing OFI's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 OFI games / 26 Apollon Smirnis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: OFI 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 14%. Fair-value odds: OFI 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Apollon Smirnis 7.14. The model has a clear lean to OFI (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: OFI 80% | Apollon Smirnis 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs Apollon Smirnis | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 46% | xG OFI 1.95 / Apollon Smirnis 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.157 / def 1.354 | Apollon Smirnis attack 0.532 / def 1.705 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: OFI (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
OFI xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Apollon Smirnis xG
46%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does OFI vs Apollon Smirnis kick off?
OFI vs Apollon Smirnis kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs Apollon Smirnis?
OFI 1 - 2 Apollon Smirnis.
Where is OFI vs Apollon Smirnis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs Apollon Smirnis part of?
OFI vs Apollon Smirnis is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 65% chance of winning, Apollon Smirnis a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both OFI and Apollon Smirnis will score (BTTS).
Will OFI vs Apollon Smirnis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Apollon Smirnis?
Record (2 meetings): OFI 2W | Draws 0 | Apollon Smirnis 0W.
What form are OFI and Apollon Smirnis in?
OFI (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Apollon Smirnis (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates OFI's attack at 1.16x the league average against Apollon Smirnis's defence at 1.71x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Apollon Smirnis's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
65%
1.53
21%
4.76
14%
7.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
OFI xG
Total xG
2.71
0.76
Apollon Smirnis xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
7.36
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
31%
3.26
2%
51.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs Apollon Smirnis?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are OFI and Apollon Smirnis expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for OFI and 0.76 for Apollon Smirnis, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs Apollon Smirnis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 10D 8L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Apollon Smirnis sit at 0.57 PPG from 28 outings (3W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
OFI carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Apollon Smirnis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 5W 5D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Apollon Smirnis have taken 0.29 points per game from 14 outings (1W 1D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, OFI come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Apollon Smirnis are on 0.36 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Apollon Smirnis in 21%.
Last 28 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Current Season
Apollon Smirnis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are OFI and Apollon Smirnis in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 10W 10D 8L in their last 28 games (1.43 PPG), while Apollon Smirnis have gone 3W 7D 18L in their last 28 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or Apollon Smirnis away?
OFI's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.43 PPG; Apollon Smirnis away: 0.29 PPG.
Have OFI or Apollon Smirnis been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Apollon Smirnis in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Jan 2022, when OFI won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
OFI's record when hosting Apollon Smirnis specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
OFI
0
Draws
1
Apollon Smirnis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and Apollon Smirnis?
From 3 meetings on record, OFI have won 2, Apollon Smirnis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did OFI and Apollon Smirnis last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when OFI 1-2 Apollon Smirnis.
Who has won more matches between OFI and Apollon Smirnis?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Apollon Smirnis see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 71%, Apollon Smirnis 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (OFI) and 50% (Apollon Smirnis).
On the defensive side: Apollon Smirnis in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / Apollon Smirnis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when OFI play Apollon Smirnis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of OFI's recent matches and 29% of Apollon Smirnis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is OFI vs Apollon Smirnis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of OFI's recent games and 50% of Apollon Smirnis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and Apollon Smirnis tend to score early?
OFI have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Apollon Smirnis in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Apollon Smirnis defy the odds to beat OFI 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Apollon Smirnis beat OFI 1-2 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Relegation Round - 3, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.95 xG and Apollon Smirnis 0.76 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. OFI fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Apollon Smirnis outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.16 / defence 1.35 against Apollon Smirnis attack 0.53 / defence 1.71, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it OFI 65% | Draw 21% | Apollon Smirnis 14%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Apollon Smirnis win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 54%, Apollon Smirnis 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Apollon Smirnis's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, OFI arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.57. Form was overturned, with Apollon Smirnis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Apollon Smirnis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.