Levadiakos vs PAOK – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Levadiakos at 36%, yet in-form PAOK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Levadiakos vs PAOK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAOK make the trip to Levadia Stadium to face Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Levadiakos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Levadiakos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Levadia Stadium, Levadiakos have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Levadiakos are significantly better at Levadia Stadium than their overall form suggests.
PAOK have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
PAOK arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, PAOK have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Levadiakos's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2026, ended 0–4 with PAOK winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. PAOK have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Levadiakos — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levadiakos 44% versus PAOK 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levadiakos 56% | PAOK 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levadiakos 1.25 xG and PAOK 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levadiakos attack 0.751 / defence 0.922 | PAOK attack 1.253 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.032. Levadiakos's attack strength of 0.751 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.253 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 35 Levadiakos games / 35 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | PAOK 34%. Fair-value odds: Levadiakos 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | PAOK 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Levadiakos are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PAOK (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Levadiakos if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Levadiakos 40% | PAOK 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levadiakos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Levadia Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levadiakos 36% | Draw 30% | PAOK 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Levadiakos 1.25 / PAOK 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Levadiakos attack 0.751 / def 0.922 | PAOK attack 1.253 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Levadiakos (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Levadiakos xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PAOK xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levadiakos vs PAOK kick off?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Levadia Stadium.
Where is Levadiakos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Levadia Stadium.
What competition is Levadiakos vs PAOK part of?
Levadiakos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Levadiakos a 36% chance of winning, PAOK a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Levadiakos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Levadiakos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Levadiakos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
Record (7 meetings): Levadiakos 0W | Draws 1 | PAOK 6W.
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in?
Levadiakos (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. PAOK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Levadiakos's attack rating (0.75) and PAOK's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.25x) against Levadiakos's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Levadiakos Win
36%
2.75
30%
3.36
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Levadiakos xG
Total xG
2.44
1.19
PAOK xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Levadiakos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Levadiakos and 1.19 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Levadiakos vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levadiakos come into this having played 41 games, going 16W 10D 15L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Levadiakos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 2.00 PPG from 41 outings (24W 10D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Levadiakos's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAOK's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levadiakos are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.88 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levadiakos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levadiakos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Levadiakos have gone 16W 10D 15L in their last 41 games (1.41 PPG), while PAOK have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levadiakos at home or PAOK away?
Levadiakos's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levadiakos at home: 1.70 PPG; PAOK away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Levadiakos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Levadiakos have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: PAOK have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 4-0 on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levadiakos have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Levadiakos
1
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levadiakos and PAOK?
From 7 meetings on record, Levadiakos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levadiakos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when PAOK 4-0 Levadiakos.
Who has won more matches between Levadiakos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levadiakos 45%, PAOK 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Levadiakos and 70% for PAOK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levadiakos keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Levadiakos have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levadiakos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levadiakos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Levadiakos's games and 65% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Levadiakos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Levadiakos's matches and 70% of PAOK's.
Do Levadiakos and PAOK tend to score early?
Levadiakos have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, PAOK in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.